Talk:PT TELEKOMUNIKASI IN (TLK)

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NYSE \ Technology \ Telecom Services - Foreign

First Post

What do you think about this company? If you have general comments, add a reply to this section by clicking the [edit] link here ----->

ValueSpider 18:54, 27 November 2006 (PST)

FX Risk

Khartand, when you write: "Besides a direct foreign exchange risk for US$ based investors, PT telkom has indirect foreign exchange risk." Do you mean, by 'direct' the regulatory/transfer risk of dividends and local currency proceeds into US$ and the remittance abroad?--Wikister 16:56, 22 February 2007 (PST)

What I mean by direct risk is just the immediate amrket currency risk an ADR holder would face. The underlying stock is priced in Indonesian Rupiah (Rp). Imagine that the Rupiah price stays constant, but the $ weakens against Rp, that means the US investor still lose money. The indirect risk is more like the currency exchange risk inherent in the company's balance sheet and operations. I wonder if you can come up with better terms than these, I have been referring to those as direct and indirect risk, but again it is relative to the point of view. --khartand 17:36, 22 February 2007 (PST)

Mixed Feeling

I am hoping ValueWiki can tremendously help me with due diligence for companies like PT Telkom. Again, like most emerging market companies, I have hard time finding information beyond factual infos in their filings and what's in wikipedia. And did I ever mention that I am too poor to buy sell side research.

In general, I have mixed feelings about the company. Having grown up in Indonesia, I don't have high esteem for the company. Like other government monopolies, it has history of being a slow fat dinosaur no incentive to provide good customer service. From financial point of view they used to have bloated cost structure and bureaucracy.

However, the company seems to be going through a nice transformation lately. I was surprised to see its 60% EBITDA. Their cellular joint venture with Singtel also looks attractive. I think only about 7% of Indonesians have landline, it was partly Telkom's fault for being fat and lazy in the past. There are currently three times more cell phones than landline. I thought initially that PT Telkom would get wiped out easily by the competitive cell phone operators. But to my surprise their cell Joint Venture with Singtel, Telkomsel managed to captuer about 50% market share in this cutthroat market littered with eight or nine operators. Actually Telkom's 70% CAGR in cellular segment growth has been largely responsible for the company's strong performance. As only 20% or so of 280 million indonesians have phone of some sort, the growth opportunity is tremendous. And at PE of 16.5 this stock still looks attractive to me, despite recent rally.

disclaimer: I don't hold any TLK shares nor plan to buy in the near future --khartand 17:27, 22 February 2007 (PST)

Indosat vs. Telkom

Just blogged a bit about Indonesian telecom industry, especially about how Indosat, despite being the first mover in cellular services got overtaken quickly by PT Telkom's (TLK) Telkomsel (joint venture with SingTel). Cellular and wireless services is pretty much the main value generating segment for both Telkom and Indosat. It was interesting to note too that both Telkom and Indosat has similar P/E multiples. however, Telkom has been outperforming Indosat, Jakarta Index and Emerging Market Index the past 2 years--khartand 12:51, 27 February 2007 (PST)

TLK on other exchanges

"The company is also traded in other exchanges under the following tickers: NYSE: TLK, LSE: TKID, JSX: TLKM, SSX: TLKM"

User:Khartand, I can't find the TLK tickers for LSE or SSX. I was hoping to disambiguate those pages on ValueWiki. Looking at TLK's website, they only mention Jakarta and NYSE. I'm stumped!

By the way, enjoyed your blog! Jonathan Stokes 22:06, 27 February 2007 (PST)

Hmm OK I think I got those other listing symbols from wikipedia. The link to LSE is correct, it seems that it's the US$ ADS listed there, here's the link.[1] . But when I clicked the SSX link from wikipedia, it goes to Surabaya Stock Exchange (the other Indonesian exchange). I'll clarify it in the main article. --khartand 23:57, 27 February 2007 (PST)

Khartand, I'll ask Zach if he can figure out why ValueWiki doesn't show the London listing. Mysteriously, I did dig up Pt Telekomunikasi Indonesia Persero TBK Series B (TLKMF) which we have listed under OTC. The plot thickens. Jonathan Stokes 12:38, 28 February 2007 (PST)

Update: Zach thinks the stock is inactive at LSE and moved to NYSE. Possibly the Wikipedia info is out of date. Jonathan Stokes 19:05, 28 February 2007 (PST)

TLK and IIT relative performance

I charted TLK and IIT using the Comparative% indicator in Bigcharts here. it is interesting how virtually all the of it is overperformance of TLK during the two TLK rallies of Jan/mid-May and Nov 2006. It seems it was TLK buying, and not IIT selling that explains the relative performance of the two.--Wikister 20:23, 27 February 2007 (PST)

I haven't done any hardcore empirical research on this, but stocks like Telkom and Indosat usually has high corellation to the country's (JSX) main index. Charting the performance over longer period, i noticed that TLK started to outperform IIT only in the last 2 yrs or so. I tried charting both IIT and TLK's PE using bigchart and don't see any significant change. I am a little suspicious with Bigchart's PE number, especially for TLK, it looks vastly different from the ones in Reuters and Yahoo. It's kind of frustrating that each sites have their own way of calculating PE's and I am too lazy to investigate what's different in each black box (whether earning is ttm, annualized quarterly earning, # shares basic or fully diluted, or weighted avg, etc). I will probably try to plot both TLKM and IIT's PE, or P/cash flow manually when I have time. Don't quote me on this yet, but I suspect the multiples of both companies will be quite similar over time, which means that the market is rewarding TLK simply for achieving relatively higher earnings. --khartand 23:57, 27 February 2007 (PST)