Talk:Nintendo Co Ltd ADR (NTDOY)

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What do you think about this company? If you have general comments, add a reply to this section by clicking the [edit] link here ----->

ValueSpider 18:54, 27 November 2006 (PST)

Wii want to play

I like the stock as a nice turnaround story. Most people almost forgot about Nintendo when they are talking about home video-game consoles as it was the distant third behind Microsoft MSFT and Sony despite being an early innovator of the industry. I have to admit that I thought Nintendo would end up like Atari decades ago. However Nintendo has been able to sell all the Wii's they produce, I haven't been able to find one Wii to date and I have spotted a few PS3 at my local retailers, while there was supposed to be twice as many Wii's around than PS3. Not to mention that Nintendo's making much better margin from Wii than Sony does from PS3. Nintendo DS growth is surprising considering stiff competition from Sony's PSP, which again is supposed to be superior technologically. Nintendo was wise to sidestep the console arms race between Sony and Microsoft with the creatively designed Wii that doesn't even suport HDTV.

Having said that, I am curious to see how long Nintendo can sustain this growth. Can Wii sustain its momentum given stiffer competition from more technologically advanced Sony PS3 and Xbox 360. However, in the handheld segment Nintendo has been able sell more Nintendo DS Sony's PSP that features more advanced graphic. Look at this videogame total sales chart. With these growth numbers, I think the stock is a pretty good value at P/E of 40... if they can keep this performance up for some years to come.

-- K Hartandi 18:25, 2 February 2007 (PST)

I am continuing my due diligence on Nintendo now. I am kicking myself for ignoring the enthusiasm Wii got last year at E3. Just look at the line of people waiting to get their hands on Wii, and E3 was supposed to be for industry insiders only. Now I am still debating whether to get in or not. It has been hard to get public coverage about the stock, and I am too poor to buy Wall Street analyst reports.

Today I just read a few articles by Steven towns at seekingalpha about Nintendo. The first one about Wii outselling PS3 in Japan posted today didn't say anything newsworthy, but the link to his previous post last week was more interesting. It quoted a bullish Merill Lynch report that predicted continuing Wii shortage despite nintendo's ramping up production to 1 million units per month. Merill also revised upwards its forecast for Wii to 69 million unit by 2011 from 46 million previously. That was twice more than Nintendo ever sold N64 console, its most home successful console to date [1]. The seeking alpha article also noted that Nintendo's forward PE is only 33 for the 12 months ending Mar 07.

I think the stock just got a little more attractive in my eyes, especially if the Merrill analysts was correct in their bullish Wii forecasts, it even likens Nintendo to Apple and Google (sans the hype). Because there would be additional profit and revenue growth from software too as halo effect.

However, I still remember how Nintendo lost its position as the pioneer leader of home videogame console to Sony and even Microsoft. I think Wii is a great product and I am still looking to get mine. But I am questioning whether Nintendo can keep its strong momentum once Sony fixes its PS3 problem and cuts its price steeply. Also, Wii iss technologically inferior to XBox 360 and PS3. And I am predicting that the life cycle of each console generation is shortening. The competition also refreshes at each generation change. However, again NTDOY's valuation looks appealing given the potential, at least in the foreseeable future.

Disclosure: I am not holding the security at the time of writing, but may get in pretty soon.

--K Hartandi 12:26, 6 February 2007 (PST)

NTDOY is an ADR that is traded like a stock but it seems to be trading in volitile patterns that are inconsistent with the Japanese and US markets. Any thoughts on this? Feb. 15 Austin Malone.

What do you mean AM? By the way, you forgot to sign using the button in the edit mode. --Wikister 15:58, 15 February 2007 (PST)

Austin, in Theory, ADR's should corellate to the underlying foreign stock, adjusted for currency exchange and ratio between the ADR and foreign shares. However, ADR trades independently, therefore it hass additional degree of freedom in price movement, and subject to other factors like liquidity and local supply/demand factor. Think of it like a stock in a company that has the foreign stock as all its asset. The true value should be the same as the foreign stock's value, but it is subject to additional volatility caused by the market for the ADR itself, not the Foreign stock. In case of NTDOY the ADR is unsponsored which may not come with usual shareholder rights, like voting rights. NTDOY also trades Over the counter (OTC) which is less liquid than securities traded in NASDAQ or NYSE. I hope this help. If you want to know more, sites like Wikipedia or investopedia has extensive articles on ADR and ADS. --K Hartandi 16:07, 15 February 2007 (PST)

I Bought NTDOY

By the way, I got in NTDOY at33.9 in February, so scrap that earlier disclaimer. However, I am still searching for my Wii, even after signing up for itrackr.com. Nintendo has been selling all the Wii they can make, outselling XBox 360 and PS3 in January. ^[1] I hope Wii keeps selling out so the stock does well... on the other hand, I want to find a Wii available at my nearest Best Buy soon. --khartand 20:49, 22 February 2007 (PST)

1. ↑ Nintendo's Wii Outsold Microsoft,Sony Consoles In US In Jan, DOW JONES NEWSWIRESFebruary 22, 2007 10:53 p.m.

SPAM: Market Intelligence on PS3

I found this video on YouTube. It's a nice commentary set on music on how Sony killed its PS3 brand, complete with interview with Phil Harrison, President of Sony's Worldwide Studios. I think it's better than most analysts reports I've seen out there. --khartand 12:43, 9 March 2007 (PST)

Wow, musical due diligence! I think it's a pretty good video, actually. Nice find, Khartand. I'm going to blog it right now. Jonathan Stokes 13:39, 9 March 2007 (PST)

Update: Blogged. Jonathan Stokes 13:48, 9 March 2007 (PST)